Preparing for Transit Ridership Increases

Transit California April 2011:Preparing for Ridership Increases

By Stephanie Jordan
Managing Editor, Transit California

This year the first of the nation’s 75 million baby boomers will reach age 65. The largest portion of that boomer population is right here in California with nearly 9 million born after World War II, between 1946 and 1964. This represents a nearly 25 percent increase in Californians 65-and-over by 2012. There are many challenges with this demographic shift, from healthcare to senior services. For public transit, it means that the dependence by retirees on transit for mobility will grow, potentially increasing already strained service demands.

Before dealing with the boomers, there is another shift toward transit happening even faster and sooner, as a direct result of rising gas prices. In March, the national gas price average hit a high of $3.56 a gallon, with some places in California hitting $4 a gallon. Experts are saying that because Americans have experienced such price spikes before, people are more prepared this time to respond to the high prices. This could translate to a steeper rise in ridership in less time than experienced before, as more people already know how to navigate their local transit systems.

During its Legislative Conference held last month in Washington, D.C., the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) revealed study findings predicting that, as gasoline prices continue to increase, Americans will turn to public transportation in record numbers. Study analysts report that as regular gas prices reach $4 a gallon across the nation, an additional 670 million passenger trips could be expected, resulting in more than 10.8 billion trips per year. If pump prices jump to $5 a gallon, the report predicts an additional 1.5 billion passenger trips can be expected, resulting in more than 11.6 billion trips per year. The report even played out if prices were to soar to $6 a gallon, noting that expectations go as high as an additional 2.7 billion passenger trips, resulting in more than 12.9 billion trips per year.

Investing in Public Transit
APTA is calling on Congress to address this impending demand by providing a greater long-term investment in public transportation. APTA President William Millar stated, “The volatility of the price at the pump is another wake up call for our nation to address the increasing demand for public transportation services. We must make significant, long-term investments in public transportation or we will leave our fellow Americans with limited travel options, or in many cases, stranded without travel options.”

Many public transit systems across the country are already seeing large ridership increases, as are many California Transit Association agency members, some even reaching double digit increases in the month of February.

"The combination of high gas prices, an improving economy, and the Capitol Corridor’s exceptional on-time performance of 95 percent or better have resulted in consistent month-to-month ridership increases on our service for the past 12 months," says Capitol Corridor Joint Powers Authority (CCJPA) Managing Director David Kutrosky. "While we are gratified by this rise in ridership, we also acknowledge that if ridership continues to grow over the next three to five years, we expect overcrowding on our trains, resulting in standing conditions – a public transport environment that's not conducive to a pleasant travel experience. Our passengers don't want a standing ride, especially when they travel for 90 minutes or more.”

When it comes to gas prices, agencies seem to have a better understanding of the relationship between increasing prices and increasing ridership. “For Foothill Transit the tipping point seems to be when gas prices reach about $4.50 per gallon. It’s only then that we start to see a substantial shift in people’s commuting decisions. And there are a lot of factors that we monitor as those numbers start to rise,” says Felicia Friesema, Marketing and Communications Manager for Foothill Transit. “Increased ridership means fuller buses, which is a good thing. The challenge is making sure that everyone has the right information before they board so that conflicts and misunderstandings can be avoided. It can be frustrating for regular riders who are used to having an available seat for their briefcase and for new riders who aren’t accustomed to leaving the drive to someone else. Early and frequent communication is key.”

Preparing Accommodations
Many transit agencies are getting ready for ridership increases, be they for boomers or those seeking relief now or in the near-future from high gas prices. Signs of preparation can be seen by those California transit agencies that can find the funding and are not struggling with service cuts to stay fiscally sound.

Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), for instance, is planning a replacement of its entire fleet of train cars and has embarked on the search for the perfect replacements. “BART customers have been riding in the same train cars for 40 years,” notes the agency. “Meantime, their car-driving friends have probably replaced their gas guzzlers several times over since 1972. BART mechanics do a remarkable job keeping BART train cars running, but the job is getting tougher each year – that’s why the transit agency is looking to replace each and every car before ridership builds to 500,000 a day, as predicted by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.” The agency is asking its customers for feedback on the fleet of the future and is “scouring the world” to find a company best suited to build the fleet.

Kutrosky explains that to get ready for the expected ridership growth, CCJPA is “currently trying to free up as many available cars by completing as many mid-cycle upgrades to our existing passenger cars as possible. In the longer term, we're securing both federal and state funds to acquire new, state-of-the art, bi-level coach cars and cleaner, more fuel efficient locomotives to accommodate our growing ridership base. We expect delivery of these cars in the next three to five years, which will be just in time to resolve our projected increased ridership constraints."

Not all agencies are experiencing as dramatic a growth as the CCJPA. Instead, some agencies experienced a drop after gas prices settled down and the poor economy settled in. However, even these agencies see modest, but steady growth happening. “In terms of increasing demand in the near-term due to rising gas prices, Omnitrans has the capacity to take on new riders,” explains Wendy Williams, Director of Marketing for Omnitrans. “With high unemployment in our service area, we lost ridership compared to two years ago. However, three out of the last four months have been ahead of the prior year.”

Other agencies, like Foothill Transit, are using the increase in gas prices to promote their services to the community. “Making sure that people know that there is a viable alternative is important, too,” says Friesema. “We’re starting a gas price ad campaign this month to let people know that our service can help them save money and the environment. In addition, we’re jumping on aboard APTA’s annual Dump the Pump Day campaign. It’s a great way to promote public transportation using the free resources provided by APTA. Foothill Transit participates every year and we’ve seen good results from doing so.”

A Look Ahead
In its Change in Motion: Transportation 2035 Plan, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) authors acknowledge that the mid-point of the 21st century is going to be “profoundly different than the middle of the 20th century, from which most of our present transportation planning assumptions and methodologies originate. We are looking ahead at a period of unprecedented changes.” One of the topics in the report is the acknowledgement of the boomers and how the demographic change will affect Bay Area transportation. As this sizeable segment of the region’s residents reaches senior status, it is expected that many will relocate into smaller dwellings in the more urban portions of the Bay Area to have easier access to essential services and cultural opportunities. For some, with aging will come a loss of the ability to drive, and for those with low incomes or physical disabilities 'lifeline' transportation issues will become increasingly important.”

While there is more time to address expansion for the boomers, 2011 is significant because it is the start of a potential swell. As a result, many agencies have taken the boomers into account in their long range planning. “At Omnitrans, we recognize that as baby boomers move into retirement, the balance of our national demographics will shift significantly,” says Williams. “We will have more non-working people than working people, probably for the first time in our nation’s history. Some benefits of this shift is that seniors, as well as young adults, tend to live in more densely populated areas which are more efficient to serve with transit. In preparation, Omnitrans is focusing future expansion on bus rapid transit service in key corridors. Our first 'sbX' line is scheduled to start construction this fall and begin operation in 2014. We have plans to implement as many as 10 BRT lines over the next 20 years.”

In MTC’s 2035 Plan, an interesting Catch-22 is noted. Pointing toward the uptick in Bay Area ridership as a result of high gasoline and oil prices, the authors discuss how the situation “could result in reductions in the number of vehicle miles traveled in the region, with beneficial impacts on congestion, highway fatalities, and greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants.” These are all positive outcomes, however, the authors make a downside observation, “the lion’s share of transportation funding is derived from the federal and state excise taxes on gasoline, and if less fuel is purchased, fewer dollars are available for future improvements. Current levels of funding already fall short of our needs, and this will only get worse if people cut back on driving and buy less gas.”

If the expected growth happens, and it appears it will since signs of that are already happening, new funding mechanisms will need to be developed to keep up with the increasing demand for public transit by riders of all ages.